With the Feb. 11 trade deadline approaching, many NBA contenders are already weighing whether to add talent over the next three months. Injuries have hit the league hard early on, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves both losing major cornerstones for an extended period. The defending champion New York Knicks also face questions after a shaky start. Our NBA insiders break down what 10 playoff contenders lack, the constraints shaping their trade options and what lies ahead.
The teams are ordered by their ranking in the Basketball Power Index (BPI) as of Tuesday, Nov. 10.
1. San Antonio Spurs (10-2)
Projected record: 62-20. Chances to make the conference finals: 58.5%.
What they’re missing: The Spurs are winning even without Tobias Harris, their major offseason acquisition, and their roster is one of the league’s most complete. Their depth, however, needs work. If one of their three guards goes down, they could be forced to lean on Jordan McLaughlin, which is what happened in the playoffs last year.
What they can pull off: San Antonio has the draft assets to swing a deal, but general manager Brian Wright is not expected to be aggressive. The Spurs have an unprotected 2027 first-round pick from Atlanta and three additional tradeable first-rounders. They also hold swap rights in 2028 (via Boston, if Nos. 2-30), 2030 (the most favourable of San Antonio, Dallas and Minnesota, if Nos. 2-30) and 2031 (via Sacramento), plus 12 tradeable second-rounders. Any salary they take back that stretches past 2026-27 will matter, as Victor Wembanyama’s extension starts next season and sixth man Keldon Johnson is a free agent. San Antonio is only $11 million below the luxury tax in 2027-28.
What’s next for San Antonio? The Spurs plan to play out the season with the roster they have. The centre spot behind Luke Kornet looks thin, but the staff is pleased with rookie Tarris Reed Jr. The club also expects to sign Stephon Castle to an extension this summer, followed by an extension for Dylan Harper in the summer of 2028. Depth has created a numbers problem of its own.
“There’s not enough minutes to go around,” coach Mitch Johnson said. “Unfortunately, I’ve got to play the bad guy and I’m not always going to be right. But I’ve got to make tough decisions in regards to only 240 minutes.”
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (8-4)
Projected record: 58-24. Chances to make the conference finals: 43.5%.
What they’re missing: The Thunder are missing several rotation players, and their trade activity will depend largely on when, or whether, the injured players can return. Nique Clifford adds another perimeter body but does not look like a playoff difference-maker. General manager Sam Presti may still search for a defensively minded wing who can replace some of the production lost while Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are sidelined.
What they can pull off: The Nov. 8 trade for Clifford does not stop Oklahoma City from making another deal. The Thunder have no open roster spot, but they hold the $5.4 million expiring contract of Nikola Topic and the $4.9 million salary of former first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Because Oklahoma City is over the first apron, it cannot take back additional salary if either player is traded. The Thunder also have three trade exceptions ($5.8 million, $11.3 million and $17.7 million), seven tradeable first-round picks (including three in June) and 19 second-rounders.
What’s next for Oklahoma? Presti is expected to be patient. The Thunder addressed their need for defensive-minded wing depth with a buy-low trade for 2025 first-round pick Clifford, giving up two second-round picks for a player with two seasons left on his rookie deal. Oklahoma City will explore upgrades over the next few months, but a big splash would be a surprise. The Thunder have not made a major midseason trade since acquiring Kendrick Perkins in 2011. Presti also has to protect future finances so he can keep a contender-quality supporting cast around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander throughout his prime.
3. Boston Celtics (10-2)
Projected record: 59-23. Chances to make the conference finals: 57%.
What they’re missing: The Celtics rank only 22nd in defensive rebounding rate, an anomaly for a team coached by Joe Mazzulla. Under Mazzulla, Boston has ranked 11th or better in that category in every other season, according to Cleaning the Glass. The problem should be fixable with players such as Mitchell Robinson and Jayson Tatum, an excellent rebounder for his position, contributing on the glass. If it persists, Boston may look for another big body to grab rebounds in the playoffs.
What they can pull off: The Celtics were one of the league’s more active teams ahead of last season’s deadline, making four separate trades that dropped them below the luxury tax and created a $27.7 million trade exception. That exception is available until February, but the first apron hard cap stops Boston from using more than $10 million of it. This year, Boston does not need to trim payroll, though it must watch the luxury tax, which it is currently $1.75 million below. Its most valuable asset could be its open roster spot. Because Boston is below the first apron, it can sign a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more.
What’s next for Boston? Finding another big man could be high on the list. The Celtics have learned from the Knicks not to overtax Robinson, who plays well in spurts, and keeping him around the 20-minute mark is ideal. Keeping Tatum and Paul George fresh is paramount, especially as Tatum works his way back to his new normal in his first full season after an Achilles injury in 2025. The $27 million trade exception could go a long way if Boston views the Eastern Conference as winnable.
4. Houston Rockets (9-3)
Projected record: 55-27. Chances to make the conference finals: 23.8%.
What they’re missing: Only two Rockets perimeter players are shooting better than 37% from three this season. One is Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose injury history suggests Houston cannot count on him for the full season. Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard should improve as the season goes on, but Houston might benefit from adding another shooter in the meantime.
What they can pull off: The Rockets have two appealing trade assets in the upcoming draft: the right to swap with Brooklyn and an unprotected first-round pick via the Phoenix Suns. They also have four additional first-round picks available to trade, a $13.3 million trade exception and an open roster spot. Houston can use the full exception and still exceed the first apron.
What’s next for Houston? Despite those assets, Houston will likely refrain from making moves, as it did last season. Its roster has been revamped with the offseason additions of Bogdanovic and Marcus Smart, along with the return of point guard Fred VanVleet. The roster’s overall size gives the Rockets flexibility to use multiple lineups without sacrificing production. VanVleet’s absence last season sped up the development of Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. Houston could still use depth at centre, given injuries to Steven Adams (right calf strain) and Clint Capela (right ankle sprain), who are both expected back soon. Unless a deal they cannot refuse comes along, the Rockets are likely to stand pat.
5. New York Knicks (6-5)
Projected record: 54-28. Chances to make the conference finals: 42%.
What they’re missing: The Knicks had a championship-level roster last season, and the only player they lost was Robinson. Andre Drummond has been a serviceable replacement so far, and it is hard to imagine New York finding many better options on the trade market. If a better one presents itself, that would be the clearest spot on the roster to improve.
What they can pull off: New York faced the same limitations last season but still traded for backup guard Jose Alvarado. This season, the Knicks are $809,000 below the second apron and cannot sign a player until Feb. 14. They can use Pacome Dadiet’s $3 million expiring contract in a trade but cannot take back more salary. New York also cannot sign a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more. The Knicks have one first-round pick and 12 second-rounders available to trade.
What’s next for New York? The Knicks are putting off contract issues until the offseason, and flexibility is limited, especially with owner James Dolan saying he will not go into the second apron. If Mikal Bridges continues to struggle, New York may start canvassing the league. However, he is owed more than $116.5 million over the next three seasons, including a player option in 2029-30. The hope is that he turns things around as he did last season, because the team needs shot creation and shotmaking.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (11-2)
Projected record: 54-28. Chances to make the conference finals: 13.9%.
What they’re missing: The Lakers have the league’s best offence but rank in the bottom half defensively. They are 28th in defensive rebounding rate, ahead of only the Bulls and Suns. Kevon Looney is not the answer at backup centre behind Walker Kessler, and although Sandro Mamukelashvili is a decent option, the Lakers belong on the long list of teams that could use another competent bruiser off the bench.
What they can pull off: The Lakers depleted their draft assets in the Kessler sign-and-trade, leaving them with the right to swap their 2028 first-round pick as their most significant remaining asset. They have three tradeable second-rounders from 2031 to 2033, two of which belong to the Washington Wizards. From a roster standpoint, Los Angeles could package the contracts of Jaden Hardy ($6 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt ($12.4 million) for a player earning $26 million or less. Although hard-capped at the first apron, the Lakers are $8.1 million under it and can take back additional salary. They have 15 guaranteed contracts and would need to waive or trade a player to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Los Angeles? After exploring trade packages to clear a roster spot during the preseason, the Lakers waived former first-round pick Dalton Knecht to cut down to the maximum of 15 players. Coach JJ Redick has largely stuck to a 10-man rotation, with Vanderbilt overtaking Looney in the depth chart when Mamukelashvili is not in as the stretch 5. Redick still needs to see what he has in second-year forward Adou Thiero and rookie Cameron Carr, though neither looks likely to fix the Lakers’ rebounding problem, as they rank second-to-last in the league on the boards.
One Eastern Conference executive said, “so long as Doncic, [Austin] Reaves and Kessler stay healthy, the Lakers will be fine.” Reaves is now dealing with a left heel injury that forced him to leave the team’s win over the Bucks on Wednesday night.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3)
Projected record: 54-28. Chances to make the conference finals: 26%.
What they’re missing: Entering the season, the main concern seemed to be frontcourt depth after Minnesota traded Julius Randle and Naz Reid in the offseason. However, second-year Frenchman Joan Beringer has done excellent work backing up countryman Rudy Gobert, and Trey Lyles, after a season out of the NBA, has performed surprisingly well at backup power forward. The question is whether Minnesota trusts that to continue or would rather pursue a sure thing at the position.
What they can pull off: The Timberwolves were one of the big winners last February when they acquired Ayo Dosunmu. Because of that trade and the offseason addition of LaMelo Ball, their draft assets are limited. They have no first-round picks available and one second-rounder (2030 via Memphis, if Nos. 51-60). Cody Williams is on an expiring $6 million contract after Minnesota declined his team option for next season. Apron rules stop Minnesota from taking back more salary than it sends out, so the return of Donte DiVincenzo, who tore his Achilles during the 2026 playoffs, could be the Timberwolves’ big addition at the deadline.
What’s next for Minnesota? The Timberwolves will keep biding their time until Anthony Edwards returns. Edwards underwent knee surgery after playing just four games to start the season, yet Minnesota is 5-2 without him and boasts the NBA’s top-ranked defence. The schedule will get tougher, but the team has held up well. Ball is adjusting well after an offseason trade, and fellow newcomer Jonathan Kuminga has made a good first impression after so-so stops with the Warriors and Hawks. Dosunmu has been excellent as Edwards’ stand-in. With Edwards projected to return as soon as late December or early January, Minnesota should have plenty of time to evaluate its roster before the Feb. 11 deadline.
8. Detroit Pistons (7-3)
Projected record: 55-27. Chances to make the conference finals: 44.4%.
What they’re missing: Detroit’s greatest need is the same as it has been for the past 18 months: a second scorer and playmaker alongside Cade Cunningham. Duncan Robinson is the only other perimeter player averaging more than 12 points per game. Daniss Jenkins has done an admirable job as a backup, but he is not a championship-level No. 2 option. Detroit does have plenty of trade assets it could use to chase a fellow star.
What they can pull off: The Pistons are among a handful of teams that control each of their next seven first-round picks. They can trade up to four of them and swap in each season, and they have 11 second-rounders available. Despite $90 million committed to Cunningham and Jalen Duren this season, Detroit is $14.5 million under the first apron hard cap. However, building a trade package without including a starter or key rotation piece could be difficult. To match salary, the Pistons have only the sizeable contracts of John Collins ($17 million), Robinson ($16 million) and Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), none of which have guaranteed salary past this season. To use its $5.2 million or $15 million trade exception, Detroit would need to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Detroit? The Pistons look poised to be among the top teams in the East during the regular season, even without a deadline move. A year ago, with a young team playing better than expected, Detroit chose not to rock the boat. This front office has favoured patience in letting its young core grow, so it is worth watching whether an opportunity for a bigger swing arises and how the Pistons handle it this time.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (9-3)
Projected record: 49-33. Chances to make the conference finals: 21.1%.
What they’re missing: The 76ers lack championship-level depth at centre behind Joel Embiid, the single greatest injury risk for any team in the title picture. Lineups with LeBron James at centre can work occasionally, but that is not a permanent solution. With Ariel Hukporti out for the season after tearing his Achilles, Philadelphia needs a better backup big man ahead of Jabari Walker and Adem Bona.
What they can pull off: The 76ers have an open roster spot and Hukporti’s $3.4 million expiring contract. Because they are $1.8 million under the first apron hard cap, they can take back up to $5.2 million in salary. They also have 10 second-round picks available to use in a trade. Philadelphia can sign a player to its open roster spot starting on Dec. 4.
What’s next for Philadelphia? Coach Nick Nurse said Dominick Barlow, who has missed the entire season with a back injury, is expected to be cleared for on-court activities by mid-November. The Sixers are thin up front, with Bona missing time with a neck injury, Hukporti out for the season and Tacko Fall sidelined by a quad injury. For now, Philadelphia is encouraged by Walker, who has proven to be the team’s most consistent backup centre. He had his best game of the season in a win over the Bulls, finishing with nine points and 11 rebounds.
“He probably deserves to play more, to be honest,” Nurse said.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6)
Projected record: 47-35. Chances to make the conference finals: 11.8%.
What they’re missing: Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive turnover rate, per Cleaning the Glass, ahead of only the struggling Milwaukee defence. The unit remains decent overall, thanks to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen protecting the rim. However, the backcourt looks highly exploitable in the playoffs, as even reserves Sam Merrill and rookie Meleek Thomas are more offensively minded. The Cavaliers badly need another perimeter stopper.
What they can pull off: Five players (Mobley, Allen, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson and James Harden) combine to earn 85% of the cap this season, which makes a trade difficult unless Cleveland is willing to part with Allen or reserves Merrill and Jaylon Tyson. The Cavaliers are $45,000 below the first apron this season, have no tradeable first-round picks and have only one second-rounder available. They can fill their open roster spot starting on April 9.
What’s next for Cleveland? After Harden replaced Darius Garland at last season’s deadline, the Cavaliers brought back their core four, believing continuity would make a difference. But Cleveland is leaning on younger players such as Tyson, Thomas and Tyrese Proctor to fill out its bench. Watch whether that group keeps producing, or whether the Cavaliers make moves similar to last season’s deadline, when they added veterans Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis to strengthen their depth.