Cooper Flagg’s second NBA season could be the one that turns the promising young star into one of the best players in the league, both in real life and in fantasy. After averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 4.5 APG on his way to Rookie of the Year honours last season, Flagg has a chance to make another leap in Year 2. But what will it take, and how high is his ceiling? And how does the return of Kyrie Irving affect Flagg?
We asked fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings and Eric Moody for their thoughts on the face of the Dallas Mavericks.
How big a leap do you expect Flagg to make in his second season?
Snellings expects Flagg to make a big leap, particularly as a scorer. Scoring is the best of his wide range of skills, but as a rookie, then-head coach Jason Kidd asked Flagg to play point guard. Snellings believes that experience probably helped Flagg’s all-around game, but it came at the expense of his aggression in creating his own shot. Playing more off the ball this season, with the green light to score, Flagg could approach 30 PPG while still maintaining solid-to-strong peripheral numbers.
Moody believes Flagg has the potential to make his first All-Star team this season. He could increase his per-game averages in points, rebounds and assists from his rookie year. Flagg recorded three games with at least 45 points last season and is already showing signs of another leap. He scored 32 points in the season opener against the Houston Rockets and followed with 29 points and 11 assists against the Miami Heat on Monday night. At just 19 years old, Moody expects him to become a more efficient scorer with another year of experience and a better supporting cast.
What does he need to do to maximise his potential?
Snellings says Flagg needs to be aggressive at both ends of the court. On offence, he must be ready to attack the rim, draw fouls and finish in the paint on any possession. That threat will open up his jump shot and create more passing opportunities, which will lead to more assists. Flagg should be a willing rebounder, but Dallas has so much size that he likely won’t dominate the glass on a regular basis. On defence, Snellings wants him to be just as aggressive in playing the passing lanes and defending the rim. He points out that at Duke, Flagg led the team in steals and blocks, as well as in points, rebounds and assists.
Moody says Flagg’s outside shooting is the biggest area for improvement. He shot just 29.5% from three-point range last season, and defenders were comfortable giving him space on the perimeter. If he can lift that figure to around 35%, it will open up more chances to attack the basket. Moody also wants Flagg to be more selective with his midrange attempts. He already excels as a passer and defender, and his ability to create his own shot is impressive for someone his age. Moody believes improved shooting efficiency would take Flagg’s offensive game to another level.
How does adding Irving, after a missed season, change things for Flagg?
Snellings says Irving’s return gives Flagg the best point guard and the best shot-making scorer of his career playing alongside him. That should amplify every part of Flagg’s offensive game. Irving can draw defensive attention and then set Flagg up with more open looks in the spots he likes to score from, far more than he got as a rookie. Irving’s ability to knock down shots from anywhere on the court, or to attack imbalanced defences off one or two dribbles, should also boost Flagg’s assist potential. With both on the floor, the opposing defence must account for two players, which makes life easier for each of them.
Moody agrees the return should make a significant difference. Flagg spent considerable time at point guard as a rookie because Dallas lacked established playmakers. Now Irving can handle much of that responsibility while pulling defenders away from Flagg. That should create more chances for Flagg to attack closeouts, cut to the basket and score without having to create everything himself. Moody is also keen to see how Dusty May uses the two together in pick-and-roll situations. Flagg may not have the ball in his hands as often, but Moody says that doesn’t necessarily mean less production, and his scoring efficiency could improve considerably.
Who is a historic example of what Flagg could become this season?
Snellings looks to two fellow Duke Blue Devils for statistical comparisons: Grant Hill and Jayson Tatum. All three are do-everything wings with forward size and guard-like skills. However, Snellings believes Flagg’s statistical output is more advanced than either Hill’s or Tatum’s were in their second seasons. He sees Flagg’s production this season as a blend of Hill’s sixth season (25.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG) and Tatum’s fifth (26.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG). An average of those two lines gives a reasonable expected value for Flagg. He is a slightly better shot-blocker than either and could have more upside as a scorer.
Moody points to LeBron James’ second season. LeBron averaged 20.9 PPG as a rookie before jumping to 27.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.2 APG in Year 2. Moody is not suggesting Flagg will become LeBron, but says both entered the league with an unusual ability to impact games as scorers, rebounders and playmakers. He also highlights Flagg’s excellent defensive instincts. What stands out to Moody is how comfortable Flagg already looks against NBA competition, and he believes Flagg will take a similar step towards becoming one of the league’s best all-around players.
Is there a future bet you would make on Flagg this season?
Odds are from DraftKings and subject to change.
Snellings would bet on Flagg to make an All-NBA team at +600, which is solid plus-money. Making an All-NBA team is fairly rare for a second-year player, with only 10 second-year players achieving it since 1989. The most recent was Luka Doncic, who did it as a Maverick, which may pave the way for Flagg. Snellings says that if Flagg averages between 25 and 30 PPG with strong peripheral numbers, stays healthy enough to play the minimum 65 games, and leads the Mavericks into playoff contention, he has a reasonable chance to follow Doncic’s All-NBA path at only 20 years old.
Moody would take a small shot on Flagg to win Most Improved Player at 70-1. Flagg averaged 21.0 PPG as a rookie, and Moody sees a realistic path to 26.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 6.0 APG this season. The last five winners of the award increased their scoring averages by at least 5.6 PPG, so Flagg may need to get closer to 27.0 PPG to strengthen his case. The challenge, Moody notes, is that voters might view a big second-year jump from the reigning Rookie of the Year as expected. But if Flagg becomes an All-Star and puts Dallas in playoff contention, that could change the conversation. At those odds, Moody believes he is worth a small wager.