The Denver Nuggets’ title hopes have hinged for most of the past decade on their ability to surround Nikola Jokic with enough talent. Now, after a mediocre start to 2026-27, the question facing the franchise is more urgent: who are the Nuggets if Jokic isn’t playing at an MVP level?
Denver has tried many routes to build that supporting cast. Jamal Murray developed into a bona fide sidekick, the franchise changed course with the trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021, and Christian Braun and Bruce Brown emerged during the 2023 championship run. Since that title, the capped-out Nuggets have steadily lost talent and have not reached the conference finals in the past three seasons.
Their focus on the supporting cast has been driven largely by Jokic’s dependability. The Serbian centre has been the NBA’s most consistent star of the 2020s. He has finished first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons, ranked first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons, and carried Denver to eight straight playoff appearances and four straight 50-win campaigns.
Yet Denver has not built a statement win over top-quality opposition this season. Jokic entered the campaign looking poised to extend his run of exceptional basketball. He is still just 31 and coming off a season in which he averaged a triple-double and captained the NBA’s most efficient offence. In September, he claimed the top spot on NBA Rank, an annual projection of the league’s top 100 players, and told reporters he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer.
When Jokic threaded a behind-the-back, cross-court pass to Cameron Johnson for a corner three during an October preseason game, it was tempting to buy back into Denver’s chances and forget April’s demoralising first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves. There was no obvious reason to expect Jokic’s level to drop, but he has struggled at times to match his own high standard in the first two weeks of the regular season. If that trend continues, the Nuggets will face an existential crisis.
Why this isn’t the same Joker
Small sample size caveats apply, but Jokic has started slowly. Through seven games, he is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from deep. His 26.1 Player Efficiency Rating is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game is his lowest output since 2019-20.
The underlying numbers raise further concerns. Jokic’s average shot distance is 12 feet, tied for the longest of his career, because just 16% of his shots have come from the basket area, a career low. Meanwhile, 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, nearly a career high. His free throw and offensive rebound rates have also dropped sharply from last season and are tracking towards career lows.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. However, his efficiency and forcefulness are lagging well behind his box score production. He ranks sixth league-wide in PER and 15th in win shares, after ranking first and second in those metrics last season.
A dominant Jokic did lead Denver to a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Yet he has not sustained that level of impact on winning or control of the paint from night to night. As a result, the Nuggets’ offence has not looked like the juggernaut fans have come to expect. In that Raptors game, Jokic posted 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, which offered hope that he is simply pacing himself for a long campaign and that his poor outside shooting is a short-term slump.
Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence this week that Jokic’s play will improve with time.
“Some of the shots we’re so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it’s a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they’re coming,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
“This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived. I’ll die on that sword.”
Why these aren’t the same Nuggets
Denver’s top-heavy roster was not built to cover any slippage from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 to start the season, including an 0-3 mark against teams with winning records, and they have heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. After Denver’s overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener, Jokic said, “I think those fans who booed us … they’re not welcome anymore.”
Jokic’s struggles have also exposed the weaknesses around him. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season through injury, Johnson continues to underperform, and a new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored on a regular basis.
With Jokic drifting further from the hoop, the Nuggets ranked 26th in points in the paint before their demolition of the Raptors. That is a potentially serious problem because Denver also ranks 28th in three-point attempts per game. Adelman wants improvement in both areas. He said he will keep making a “concerted effort” to establish Jokic in the post, and he is encouraging his role players to “get up more 3s.”
Denver’s long-standing winning formula, an elite offence compensating for a so-so defence, looks shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, the Nuggets’ offence ranks 11th heading into Thursday. They have not ranked outside the top 10 since Jokic was a rookie.
“It’s too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray],” Adelman said Monday. “I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves.”
Adelman’s role requires him to keep faith in his role players, but he is working with a severely untested bench. Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise. However, budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from any real postseason impact.
The new faces highlight how few key figures remain from the 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.
The Nuggets sought to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives, since Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts. Those efforts have largely failed. Denver’s recent draft history has also produced more misses than hits. Instead of replenishing Jokic’s supporting cast with waves of young talent, the franchise has settled for a fresh batch of free-agent fliers every summer. Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson have all drifted in and out of Denver in recent years, leaving little impact.
Put it all together, and it is no surprise that Denver’s bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. That is a real drag for Jokic to overcome, even if he recaptures his top form.
Why Denver lacks real options to improve
Denver’s cap situation will not ease any time soon. If Jokic signs an extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years, he will join Murray and Gordon on the long-term books. Both are under contract through 2028-29. Braun’s five-year, $125 million extension, which kicked in this season, is another quiet drain on the Nuggets’ finances.
Denver would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon and Braun given their salaries, and it cannot afford to part with Murray given his strong play and track record. None of the younger Nuggets have played well enough to generate a significant trade return.
More importantly, if Jokic’s impact continues to lag, the Nuggets will need to consider negotiating rather than simply handing him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.
A five-year extension would carry Jokic through his age-36 season, and there is no recent precedent for a centre playing at an MVP level that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship in his age-37 season, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount, a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.
Jokic’s slow start has made clear that Denver has no succession plan if its franchise centre suffers meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. The Nuggets were built to support Jokic as best they could, on the assumption he would keep handling the heavy lifting. No rising superstar is waiting to take the baton, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
For Jokic and the Nuggets, something will have to give. There is no plausible path for Denver to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, improve his supporting cast and avoid the NBA’s second apron penalties all at once. The Milwaukee Bucks faced a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer. They chose to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.
So far, Jokic has resisted pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no indication that he wants to leave Denver. Superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in pursuit of better championship odds. Jokic, however, could follow the Dirk Nowitzki model. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.
Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has plenty of good reasons to reward Jokic’s loyalty as he ages. Yet this season has offered a glimpse of the organisation’s murky future. Jokic can only mask everything that is troubling the Nuggets when he plays at an MVP level. When he doesn’t, Denver’s entire plan starts to fall apart.